MSC certification helps mitigate risk, increases resilience to climate impact
WASHINGTON, D.C. November 4, 2025 - The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and the Common Oceans Program today announced the publication of a new research paper, ‘Climate change risks to future sustainable fishing using global seafood ecolabel data’, published in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability.
The new research contains analysis of more than 500 sustainably certified fisheries around the world and asserts that fisheries targeting highly migratory species including tunas, bonitos and billfishes are most at risk from the impacts of shifting fish stocks and the reduction in the number of fish in the ecosystem due to climate change. The research also shows that MSC certification can help mitigate risk, making fisheries potentially more resilient to climate impacts.
The analysis looked at data from MSC certified fisheries and researchers suggest fisheries unable to meet MSC certification are likely to be more vulnerable to the effects of climate change. In contrast, MSC certified fisheries are more likely to be resilient to climate impacts, due to robust management plans and sustainability measures required to gain certification.
To mitigate risks, the analysis suggests greater international cooperation is needed, for example by implementing adaptive allocations, where countries’ fishing quotas are adjusted in response to shifting fish populations. Governments also need to further reduce greenhouse gas emissions if they want to continue to sustainably harvest some species and ensure stocks for future generations.
The research paper ‘Climate change risks to future sustainable fishing using global seafood ecolabel data’ was led by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and was published in the journal Cell Reports Sustainability. It analyzed the risks from the impacts of climate change to fisheries around the world that use a range of different fishing gear types and that target 19 different categories of seafood, from krill to lobsters, and from whitefish to tuna.
This latest research has been supported by the Tuna Project of the Common Oceans Program which is led by the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and by the MSC Ocean Stewardship Fund.
Lauren Koerner, lead author of the report and a Data Science Manager for the MSC, said:
“The effects of climate change are causing all types of species to alter their behavior. Fish are moving to new and different locations and as a result existing fishing quota agreements quickly become obsolete because the fish stocks have moved.
“We have seen fisheries adapting their approach to remain sustainable, but it is becoming more and more challenging to do so without the support of fisheries management organizations which are responsive to the challenges of climate change.”
Ahead of the COP30 UN climate negotiations later this month, the MSC is calling on governments to collaborate on fish stock management, ensuring they work across borders to protect species from decline.
Koerner continued: “Climate change shows no signs of slowing and global demand for seafood continues to rise. Governments and fisheries management organizations need to adapt their practices to keep pace and ensure our oceans remain healthy.”
Joe Zelasney, Common Oceans Program, Tuna Project Manager said:
“With climate change there will be winners and losers in tuna fisheries but for some developing small island states, the impact on their economies could be devastating.
“It is important for governments and the five tuna regional fisheries management organizations that manage tuna fisheries on the high seas to work closely together to stay ahead of the changes to protect livelihoods and regional food security.”
As ocean temperatures change, migratory species change their routes in favor of cooler waters. For example, U.S. Atlantic black sea bass fisheries have experienced a northward shift along the East Coast of the US. The changing distribution means management bodies must respond quickly and coordinate across jurisdictions to properly manage the species, determine catch limits, and maintain a healthy population for both the species and its habitat.
In contrast fisheries targeting invertebrates such as bivalves, crabs and prawns, were least likely to suffer international management related climate disagreements because these species are sedentary or live on the bottom of the ocean and do not migrate. The research noted however that these species may suffer from climate driven impacts not included in the scope of the study, such as ocean acidification and marine heatwaves.